Goa Congress to issue show-cause notice to Ravi Naik

The Goa Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCC) will soon issue a show-cause notice to north Goa Congress Lok Sabha candidate and former Chief Minister Ravi Naik seeking his explanation over his recent statements blaming Dr. Manmohan Singh for Congress's major defeat.

Mr. Naik who lost to BJP's Sripad Naik with a wide margin of over 1.04 lakhs had, among other reasons, blamed Dr. Singh for his failure to reach out to people across the country with the performance of the UPA government.

Congress spokesperson Durgadas Kamat said on Saturday that the decision has been taken in this regard after GPCC president John Fernandes returned to Goa after his three-day visit to New Delhi.

The party lost both seats in Goa, including the Catholic-dominated South Goa seat which is traditionally considered a bastion of the Congress.

Rajasthan: Modi makes ‘Mission 25’ look easy

BJP got support from all sections and in the rural areas

Rajasthan saw a clean sweep by the BJP. In the three Lok Sabha elections held in the last decade, the electoral pendulum in the State has swung from one end to the other in what has essentially been a bipolar political contest.

In 2004, the BJP won 21 seats, in 2009 the Congress turned the tables by securing 20 seats and this time around the BJP has staged a resounding turnaround by capturing all the 25 seats. The earlier occasion when one party won all the seats was in 1984 — the Congress swept the State after the assassination of Indira Gandhi. In this sense, the staggering BJP victory in 2014 is phenomenal.

Eighteen of the 25 BJP candidates decimated their rivals by a margin ranging from 2-5 lakh votes. What caused this historical victory? A simple answer can be that in all the Lok Sabha elections held in Rajasthan after 1998, the party which had won in the Vidhan Sabha elections held a few months earlier also managed to win the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP too carried on from its Assembly triumph and consolidated in the Lok Sabha election.

Another major reason was the deep-seated dissatisfaction and seething anger with the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre and also against the local Members of Parliament. In the post-poll survey, a significant number of voters identified price rise, corruption, unemployment, inadequate supply of drinking water, women security as the issues which determined their voting decision. Nearly half of the respondents observed that the BJP was the best party to solve these problems.

The Modi factor, which was discernible in many other parts of the country, also provided a great momentum for the BJP. The BJP has traditionally done exceedingly well among the non-reserved social groups like Brahmins, Rajputs and trading communities. The real success story lies in the tremendous surge in support which the party received from among the backward communities, Dalits, Adivasis and more significantly among the Muslims.

(Sanjay Lodha and Nidhi Seth are with the Department of Political Science, Mohan Lal Sukhadia University, Udaipur).

The real star in Punjab is AAP

The Punjab verdict is bad news for the two mainstream alliances in the State and signals the rise of a third alternative

Punjab was among the few States that bucked the national trend in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by denying its alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) an outright victory. The ruling combine managed to add only two seats to its 2009 tally by winning six (SAD: 4, BJP: 2) of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in the State, with four seats going to the debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and three to the Congress.

In many ways, the real star of the election in Punjab was the AAP, which managed to secure nearly one-fourth of the total votes polled, thereby emerging as a third alternative in what has traditionally been a bipolar contest between the SAD-BJP and the Congress. It was in the Malwa belt that the AAP registered its best performance picking up all its four seats (Sangrur, Faridkot, Fatehgarh Sahib and Patiala) with an overall vote share of 29 per cent in the region. Of the nine seats that the AAP could not win, it finished third in eight, and in seven of these eight seats, it polled more votes than the margin of victory of the winning candidate.

The AAP dented both the SAD-BJP alliance and the Congress. The CSDS Lokniti post-poll survey shows that 13 per cent of traditional Congress supporters and 17 per cent of SAD-BJP supporters voted for Kejriwal’s party. The AAP performed much better than expected across age groups, classes, castes and communities and localities and its performance is particularly noteworthy among some sections. Among the Hindu Other Backward Classes, four of every 10 voted for the newcomer. Upper class, youth, college educated and urban voters also gave the AAP a strong advantage over its opponents (See table).

What explains the AAP’s spectacular rise in Punjab’s politics? The post-poll data suggest that the AAP benefited from the anger against the Congress-led Union government as well as the anger against the SAD-BJP government. Disgruntled with both governments, many voters opted for the AAP, which succeeded in presenting itself as a viable alternative. About three-fourths of the respondents were of the view that the State government had failed in curbing the menace of drugs. Close to half the respondents felt the government failed in controlling farmers’ suicides. Price rise, corruption and unemployment were the other major issues. The AAP, it seems, was ahead of other parties in raising these issues. The survey data show that AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal is very popular in Punjab.

The Punjab verdict is bad news for the two mainstream alliances in the State and signals the rise of a third alternative.

(Jagrup Singh Sekhon teaches Political Science at Guru Nanak Dev University, Punjab. Ashutosh Kumar teaches Political Science at Panjab University, Chandigarh)

Educated, urban voters flocked to BJP in MP

Huge victory margins indicate party’s expanded base across all social sections

The Bharatiya Janata Party has won a landslide victory in Madhya Pradesh, winning 27 of the 29 seats, its best performance ever in the State. The party’s victory almost resonates with the results in other bipolar States in the neighbourhood such as Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat.

The BJP swept the Assembly election held in Madhya Pradesh a few months ago. The difference between the vote share of the party and the Congress increased from 8 per cent during that election to 19 per cent this time. Only two Congress stalwarts, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Kamal Nath, managed to retain their seats. The result of this election is significant in the State in terms of its victory margin: in the 27 seats, the margins ranged from one lakh to four lakh, while in the 2009 election, the margins in most constituencies were in the thousands.

The extraordinary performance of the BJP was based on the solid platform created by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan during the Assembly election. It was further strengthened and consolidated by the Narendra Modi wave. The rank and file of the BJP was completely charged up . The campaign revolved around the fact that if the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance forms the government at the Centre, the State will get an extra boost for development. The Congress’s abysmal performance in this election is also due to the overwhelming anti-incumbency against the United Progressive Alliance government. In the whole campaign, issues of development remained crucial for the BJP and paved the way for this huge victory.

When an electoral victory is so resounding and the gap between the two contestants so large, it goes without saying that the winning party must have expanded its base across all social sections squarely. Yet, some social sections were more enthusiastic in their support for the BJP. For instance, this time, almost one-third of the electors were from the age group of 18-25. The BJP secured a 54 per cent vote share, which is the highest ever by any party in the State.

Post-poll survey data show that non-literates gave almost equal preference to both the Congress and the BJP. However, among the educated groups, there is a marked higher preference for the BJP. The party did exceedingly well in rural areas and also retained a complete grip in urban areas. Though the poor tend to divide their vote between the two main contenders, most other income groups are clearly in favour of the BJP.

OBC consolidation

The Other Backward Classes group is numerically the biggest social group in the State. The BJP appears to have further consolidated its hold in this group. Among the OBCs, 67 per cent voted for the BJP and 19 per cent for the Congress. The data suggest that the Brahmin and Rajput communities have shown an extraordinarily higher preference for the BJP, and a similar pattern prevailed among other upper castes as well. The Dalit vote was divided between the BJP and the Congress (43 per cent and 42 per cent, respectively).

The Bahujan Samaj Party’s support base among the Dalits was reduced to 6 per cent. The real enigma of the whole electoral scene is that the BJP led in the tribal-dominated constituencies of the State. The Congress could only retain votes from the bottom of the social pyramid, while the BJP got votes from all social groups with further consolidation among the upper castes and the OBCs. The only exception were the Muslims who overwhelming supported the Congress; the BJP received only 8 per cent of the Muslim votes. This very clearly shows that in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, almost all caste and class groups shifted towards the BJP owing to a popular assessment of the State government.

Yatindra Singh Sisodia is Professor at Madhya Pradesh Institute of Social Science Research, Ujjain.

In Chhattisgarh, BJP builds on success of 2009

The BJP’s vote share among Dalits rose to 37 per cent while among the lower OBCs it rose to almost 60 per cent.

The BJP, which swept the Lok Sabha polls in Chhattisgarh, improved its vote share in the 16th Lok Sabha polls.

The party polled 48.5 per cent votes in an election that also saw a steep rise in turnout (a 14 per cent rise culminating in over 69 per cent polling). With the Raman Singh government voted back to power in the Assembly elections held just a few months ago, the BJP’s victory was not unexpected. It only indicated the terminal situation in which the Congress finds itself. Unable to fight back against the BJP, it had to be satisfied with a lone seat from the State. In this strictly bipolar State, the difference in the vote share of the two main parties is a huge 10 per cent.

Youth buck trend

In this otherwise one-sided election, a few interesting patterns deserve to be noted. Defying the patterns in many other parts of the country, the young voters in the State favoured the Congress more than the BJP (over half the respondents in the age group of 18-25 voted for Congress as against 40 per cent voting for the BJP). Second, the Congress improved its base among the urban voters (42 per cent) while the BJP consolidated its support among the rural voters (51 per cent).

Post-poll survey also shows that the BJP’s vote share among Dalits rose to 37 per cent while that among the lower OBCs rose to almost 60 per cent. Correspondingly, the BJP also gained among the poor and lower-income voters. Interestingly, while many States reported an upper caste consolidation in favour of the BJP, in Chhattisgarh it lost some support from the upper castes though it ended up being the main beneficiary of their support.

With a popular State government in power, the outcome of the polls could not have been very different. Yet, The Congress’s inability to relate to voters is starkly brought out by the fact that even various Central government schemes that benefitted underprivileged voters were identified with the State government. Those who benefitted from schemes such as MNERGA or National Rural Health Mission, etc. gave the credit to the State government for these benefits (see Table). This failure of the Congress ensured that the popular State government and the image of Narendra Modi would bring a near-total victory for the BJP.

(Anupama Saxena teaches political science in Guru Ghasidas University, Bilaspur)

The real star in Punjab is AAP

The Punjab verdict is bad news for the two mainstream alliances in the State and signals the rise of a third alternative

Punjab was among the few States that bucked the national trend in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by denying its alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) an outright victory. The ruling combine managed to add only two seats to its 2009 tally by winning six (SAD: 4, BJP: 2) of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in the State, with four seats going to the debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and three to the Congress.

In many ways, the real star of the election in Punjab was the AAP, which managed to secure nearly one-fourth of the total votes polled, thereby emerging as a third alternative in what has traditionally been a bipolar contest between the SAD-BJP and the Congress. It was in the Malwa belt that the AAP registered its best performance picking up all its four seats (Sangrur, Faridkot, Fatehgarh Sahib and Patiala) with an overall vote share of 29 per cent in the region. Of the nine seats that the AAP could not win, it finished third in eight, and in seven of these eight seats, it polled more votes than the margin of victory of the winning candidate.

The AAP dented both the SAD-BJP alliance and the Congress. The CSDS Lokniti post-poll survey shows that 13 per cent of traditional Congress supporters and 17 per cent of SAD-BJP supporters voted for Kejriwal’s party. The AAP performed much better than expected across age groups, classes, castes and communities and localities and its performance is particularly noteworthy among some sections. Among the Hindu Other Backward Classes, four of every 10 voted for the newcomer. Upper class, youth, college educated and urban voters also gave the AAP a strong advantage over its opponents (See table).

What explains the AAP’s spectacular rise in Punjab’s politics? The post-poll data suggest that the AAP benefited from the anger against the Congress-led Union government as well as the anger against the SAD-BJP government. Disgruntled with both governments, many voters opted for the AAP, which succeeded in presenting itself as a viable alternative. About three-fourths of the respondents were of the view that the State government had failed in curbing the menace of drugs. Close to half the respondents felt the government failed in controlling farmers’ suicides. Price rise, corruption and unemployment were the other major issues. The AAP, it seems, was ahead of other parties in raising these issues. The survey data show that AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal is very popular in Punjab.

The Punjab verdict is bad news for the two mainstream alliances in the State and signals the rise of a third alternative.

(Jagrup Singh Sekhon teaches Political Science at Guru Nanak Dev University, Punjab. Ashutosh Kumar teaches Political Science at Panjab University, Chandigarh)

Modi - ‘Chaiwallah’ to dream merchant

I will not walk on the beaten paths

Mine are different, random walks.

(From Modi’s poem Introduction to the Honeybee)

Polariser, divisive, more recently, Danga Babu (rioter) to his detractors; visionary, leader, efficient administrator to his supporters — there is no consensus on who Narendra Damodardas Modi is.

From an ordinary Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh pracharak to a general secretary of the BJP, from taking oath as the Chief Minister of Gujarat to becoming the BJP’s prime ministerial nominee, Mr. Modi’s rise within the party and on the national political scene is as mystifying as his persona.

Born in a poor family, took up odd jobs, left home, left his wife, joined the RSS that paved the way for his entry into politics, started at the bottom and finally rose to the most coveted position — this snapshot of Mr. Modi’s life is tailor-made for the celluloid. Except, the horrific 2002 Gujarat riots sketched his character in complete opposition to that of hero. Those opposed to his politics and sceptical of his “secular credentials” continue to see him as a man who will spell doom for a secular India.

So how did Narendra Modi emerge as the “leader” chosen by a secular and democratic India?

In tandem with the concerted opposition, a tactically planned and executed image-building exercise has been credited for the turnaround — from a leader not acceptable to the “seculars” to a man who can offer a “stable government” and “good governance”. The corporate sector has chipped in with the approval of the “vibrant Gujarat”.

Those who work with him say he is not one to depend on others and leads from the front. While his team provides inputs, he reads up on the places he visits and talks of issues that will forge an instant connection between him and the people.

He has even managed to adroitly use every barb thrown at him to his advantage. “Woh naamdar hai, mai kaamdar hoon [they have the legacy, I have the credentials].” He used the meant-to-be derogatory “chaiwalla” (tea seller) comment to establish himself as an ordinary man who was challenging the high and the mighty.

Promising more jobs, a robust economy, national security, improved international ties and inclusive growth and development, the “merchant of death” has become the dream merchant for the young, the wearied and the doubtful.